Winds of change surround Brewers-Astros clash

Baseball Betting Lines

07/31/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Things sure are changing in the Astros' clubhouse in a hurry, but that hasn't stopped the club from putting together a little win streak.

Having already traded one face of the franchise, Houston appears on the verge of shipping out another before tonight's continuation of a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers at Minute Maid Park.

With the Astros 13 1/2 games off the pace in the National League Central, the club has become sellers at this year's trade deadline. They already shipped starting pitcher Roy Oswalt to the Phillies on Thursday and are rumored to have a deal in the works today to send Lance Berkman to the New York Yankees.

Berkman is expected to become the Yankees' full-time designated hitter after batting .245 in 85 games this season with 13 homers and 49 RBI following knee surgery in March.

"If you decide to leave a place you've grown up and call home, that's very difficult," Berkman told Houston's website on Friday. "This is a tremendous organization, and they've given me an opportunity to not only play in the big leagues, but they kept me around. It would be very tough to leave a place as comfortable with as I am here."

Berkman was not in the lineup on Friday, but J.A. Happ was. One of the players acquired from the Phillies on Thursday for Oswalt, the young left-hander threw six scoreless innings in his Houston debut, helping his club to a 5-0 victory.

Happ gave up just two hits and struck out six to earn the win, the Astros' third in a row that is one shy of their season high.

"I'm sure there was a lot of anxiety and nerves throwing for the first part of it," Astros manager Brad Mills said of Happ. "We saw a guy that knows how to pitch."

Houston's look to the future has opened up playing time for guys like Chris Johnson, who had one of three Astros homers last night. Jason Michaels and Jeff Keppinger also went deep while Johnson extended his hitting streak to 13 games, the longest by an Astros rookie since Julio Lugo's 14-game run in 2000.

Brewers starter Manny Parra couldn't keep up with Happ, allowing four runs on four hits and three walks over 5 1/3 innings. Happ's performance did not catch Milwaukee manager Ken Macha by surprise either.

"I voted for him for Rookie of the Year last year," Macha said of Happ. "He's got a good arm. I thought we were just a little too aggressive and went out of the zone a little bit tonight."

Milwaukee finished with just four hits, none from Corey Hart, who went 0-for-3 with a walk in his return to the lineup after missing six games due to a sore right thumb and wrist.

Hart and company will be looking to slow down Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez, who is on an impressive run that has seen him win two straight and five of his last six starts while allowing one run or less in four of those games.

The left-hander beat the Reds on Sunday with seven scoreless innings of one- hit, two-walk ball while striking out seven and moving to 8-11 on the season with a 4.80 earned run average.

Rodriguez, 31, beat the Brewers on June 30 with seven innings of one-run ball and is 6-6 versus them lifetime with a 4.48 ERA.

Brewers starter Dave Bush snapped a two-start skid on Sunday with a win over Washington, allowing three runs -- two earned -- on six hits over six innings to improve to 5-8 on the season with a 4.27 ERA. It was an encouraging outing for the right-hander after he gave up 10 runs, five earned, over four innings of a loss to Pittsburgh in his previous outing.

Bush has pitched well versus the Astros in his career, going 6-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 games, 13 of those starts. The 30-year-old did lose to them on June 30, but allowed two runs over six innings.

The Brewers and Astros split six games in Milwaukee earlier this year.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

Sportsbook betting odds favor Europe in Ryder Cup

September 19, – Despite holding a decided edge in the all-time series, with 24 wins, 2 ties and 10 losses, Team USA is the underdog again heading into the Ryder Cup in Kidare, Ireland this weekend, according to MySportsbook.com.  The Europeans have captured four of the past five editions, including their largest victory ever, an 18 ½ to 9 ½ thumping in Michigan in 2004. Current Ryder Cup betting odds favor the Europeans to continue their winning ways; they are a 4-5 bet to take the title, compared to 6-5 for the Americans. 

Despite being knocked out in the first round of World Match play by Shaun Micheel, Tiger Woods is predicted to lead the US charge and be their highest point scorer for the week, with odds listed at 9-4 that he outpoints all other American players, including Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson and Chris DiMarco to  name a  few.  Team USA has four relatively unknown players on the roster but all four are 2007 tournament winners and have posted some of season’s best performances, each earning over $1.5 million on the PGA TOUR.  They include Zach Johnson, Vaughan Taylor, JJ Henry and Brett Wetterich.

The experienced European squad includes the likes of Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington, Jose Maria Olazabal and Darren Clarke, who’s emotions will be tested after the passing of his wife to a battle with cancer.  Donald and Garcia are in particularly good form and each is a 5-1 bet to lead the European squad in the points race. Donald has proven he can go head to head with Woods at a major event after a run for the $1.2 million purse at the PGA Championship. Garcia’s Ryder Cup credentials prove he’s ready for battle too.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your golf sportsbook needs.

Ryder Cup Odds

Europe
Tie
USA
4-5
10-1
6-5


Ryder Cup Top US point scorer
Tiger Woods
Jim Furyk
Phil Mickelson
Chris DiMarco
David Toms
Stewart Cink
Chad Campbell
Scott Verplank
Zach Johnson
Vaughan Taylor
JJ Henry
Brett Wetterich
9-4
4-1
5-1
7-1
8-1
12-1
15-1
15-1
25-1
30-1
30-1
50-1


Ryder Cup Top European scorer
Sergio Garcia
Luke Donald
Padraig Harrington
Colin Montgomerie
Darren Clarke
David Howell
Lee Westwood
Paul Casey
Henrik Stenson
Jose Maria Olazabal
Paul McGinley
Robert Karlsson
5-1
5-1
6-1
13-2
8-1
9-1
9-1
11-1
12-1
12-1
20-1
25-1

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com