This Week in Golf - July 29th through August 1st

Golf Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - WOMEN'S BRITISH OPEN, Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Southport, England - The women remain in Europe this week for the fourth and final major of their season, the Women's British Open.

Catriona Matthew was the only player in red figures at the end of last year's Women's British Open as she finished at three-under par and won by three strokes over Karrie Webb.

It was Matthew's first major championship. Webb was denied her fourth Women's British title.

Matthew has not won an LPGA Tour event since, but did compete in her fifth Solheim Cup for the European Tour last fall.

Last year, the event was contested at Royal Lytham & St. Annes and switches to Royal Birkdale this year.

The last time Birkdale hosted the Women's British Open in 2005, Jeong Jang fired four rounds in the 60s and cruised to a four-stroke win over Sophie Gustafson. Jang matched the 36-hole scoring record with her two-day total of 134 and had the second-lowest 54-hole score (203) in tournament history.

Jang won wire-to-wore after opening with a four-under 68. Also that week, Kris Tschetter posted an eight-under 29 over nine holes in the third round. That matched the lowest nine-hole score in Women's British Open history and set the mark for lowest score in relation to par.

Sherri Steinhauer was the last American women to win this title in 2006. She also won in '98 and '99. Prior to her, Emilee Klein was the previous American woman to win this title in 1996. Only one of those counted as a major championship title, though, as the event wasn't designated a major until 2001.

The first three majors this year have been won by Yani Tseng (Kraft Nabisco), Cristie Kerr (LPGA Championship) and Paula Creamer (U.S. Women's Open).

ESPN will have coverage from 9-11 a.m. (et) the first two days, then three hours of coverage each of the final two rounds starting at 10 a.m.

After a two-week break, the LPGA Tour returns to action in Oregon for the Safeway Classic, where M.J. Hur won last year.

CHAMPIONS TOUR

U.S. SENIOR OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, Sahalee Country Club, Sammamish, Washington - The Champions Tour heads to the west coast this week as Sahalee Country Club will host the season's third major, the U.S. Senior Open.

Fred Funk blew away the field last year at Crooked Stick as he fired four rounds in the 60s, including a seven-under 65 in the final round, to cruise to a six-stroke victory over Joey Sindelar.

Funk set a pair of records by finishing at 20-under par. He broke Hale Irwin's U.S. Senior Open record for most strokes under par, by three, and he was also the lowest player under par in any of the USGA Open Championships.

It was Funk's second major championship victory on the Champions Tour. He also won the 2008 JELD-WEN Tradition.

This will be the first of three USGA Open Championships to be contested in the state of Washington.

The last major in Washington state was the 1998 PGA Championship, which Sahalee hosted. Vijay Singh was the winner that week and 34 players who were in that field are competing this week. Funk shared 23rd in '98, while Mark O'Meara and Nick Price tied for fourth behind Singh. John Cook was the only other player in the top 10 that week -- he finished ninth -- who is competing this week.

There are 27 players in the field who have combined to win 49 majors on the Champions Tour.

Tom Lehman was a playoff winner over Fred Couples at the first major this season, the Senior PGA Championship, while Bernhard Langer fended off Corey Pavin last weekend at the Senior British Open.

ESPN2 will have four hours of coverage each of the first two rounds starting at 5 p.m. (et), while NBC will air three hours of play beginning at 4 p.m. the final two rounds.

The Champions Tour heads to Minnesota next week for the 3M Championship, where Langer won by one shot over Andy Bean last year.

The next USGA event will be the U.S. Women's Amateur, which runs from August 9-15 at Charlotte Country Club.

PGA TOUR

THE GREENBRIER CLASSIC, The Old White Course, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia - The Greenbrier Classic is a new event on the PGA Tour schedule this year and it comes before one of the busiest stretches of the season.

Players who are qualified for all four PGA Tour playoff events and the Ryder Cup could potentially play seven of the next nine weeks following The Greenbrier Classic with a World Golf Championships event, a major and the four playoff events coming before the Ryder Cup.

The Old White Course at the Greenbrier resort will host a field that includes just two of the top 25 players in the world and seven of the top 25 on the FedEx Cup points list.

There are five PGA Tour winners from this season competing this week, including two-time winner Jim Furyk. He is one of 10 major champions in the field.

Not only are many of the top players taking this week off, so is network television. Golf Channel will air all four rounds from 3-6 p.m. (et).

There are two events next week. The top players in the world will be in Ohio for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, where Tiger Woods is the defending champion. The remaining PGA Tour players will be in New York for the Turning Stone Resort Championship, where Matt Kuchar won last year.

EUROPEAN TOUR

IRISH OPEN, Killarney Golf & Fishing Club, Killarney, Ireland - Shane Lowry became the third amateur to win a European Tour event when he captured this title last year.

The young Irishman needed three extra holes to fend off Robert Rock for the victory. Not only did Lowry need a playoff to gain the title, he had to sit through a two-hour weather delay.

After Lowry and Rock matched pars on the first extra hole and birdies on the second, Lowry ran home a six-foot birdie effort on the third playoff hole to join Pablo Martin and Danny Lee as the only amateurs to win on the European Tour.

Not only was the win Lowry's first on the European Tour, it was also his first tour start. Since that win in May '09, he has posted just two top-10 finishes, both of which came this season.

Lowry will have a tough fight on his hands this week as the field will be led by fellow Irishmen and recent major champions Padraig Harrington and Graeme McDowell, as well as Rory McIlroy.

Golf Channel will have three hours of coverage of all four rounds starting at 10 a.m. (et) the first two days and at 9 a.m. on Saturday and Sunday.

The European Tour is in the United States for the next two weeks with the WGC- Bridgestone Invitational next week, followed by the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.

NATIONWIDE TOUR

COX CLASSIC, Champions Run, Omaha, Nebraska - Last year's Cox Classic was a low-scoring affair.

Rich Barcelo went lowest as he closed with a six-under 65 to finish 20-under 264 and win by a single stroke over Tom Gillis. The victory was Barcelo's first on the Nationwide Tour.

Both Barcelo and Gillis are competing on the PGA Tour this week.

There are 13 winners from 2010 in the field this week, including two-time winner Tommy Gainey and last week's champ D.J. Brigman. The field also includes 24 of the top 25 players on the money list.

Golf Channel has two hours of coverage the first two days starting at 12:30 p.m. (et), then three hours of action starting at 1 p.m. the final two days.

The tour heads to Kansas next week for the Wichita Open, where Chris Tidland was victorious last year.

Wwwworldwidegamble Golf Betting News

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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