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03/10/2010 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rudy Gay led a potent Memphis attack with 28 points, as the Grizzlies' ran their road winning streak to seven games with a convincing 111-91 win over the Celtics.
O.J. Mayo notched 17 points, and Marcus Williams scored 16 off the bench. Zach Randolph returned from a stiff back to add 13 points and 10 rebounds for Memphis, which is riding the longest road winning streak in franchise history and has won four of five overall.
Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen each scored 17 points for the Celtics, who lost their second in a row following a four-game win streak. Paul Pierce had 14 points and Rasheed Wallace 11.
Memphis rolled to a 27-12 lead after 12 minutes and were up 20, 33-13, in the early going of the second after opening with a 6-1 spurt.
The Grizzlies kept pouring it on, as Mike Conley's three-pointer and a Mayo reverse layup to follow made it 43-22 with 5 1/2 minutes left. The margin at halftime saw the Grizzlies' ahead 55-33.
Boston got its offense on track in the third quarter, nearly matching the output for the first half with a 30-point frame. The C's used a quick 9-0 burst to get within 14 on a Pierce three at the seven-minute mark, but Memphis' lead remained in double digits, 82-63, beginning the final period.
Hasheem Thabeet and Sam Young put in a pair of high-percentage baskets early in the fourth to run the difference to 22. By the time Gay and Pierce traded threes at the halfway point, the visitors had built a 102-77 advantage to win going away.
Game Notes
Memphis shot 55 percent from the floor compared with Boston's 43.8-percent effort...The Grizzlies halted a six-game losing streak in this series. Memphis last defeated the Celtics on December 6, 2006...Michael Finley scored 10 points in his second game with the Celtics. Kevin Garnett was 3-of-9 from the field for six points and added seven boards, while Nate Robinson was scoreless in nearly 15 minutes off the bench...Conley had 12 points, Young scored 11 and Marc Gasol secured 10 boards with seven points and five assists in the win...The Grizzlies' last road loss came at Minnesota on February 6.
<< Devils double up Rangers
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Devils captain Jamie Langenbrunner was one of
six different goal-scorers, as New Jersey doubled up the New York Rangers,
6-3, at Prudential Center.
Langenbrunner, Brian Rolston, Travis Zajac and Rob Niede
<< Fleischmann, Capitals edge Hurricanes in overtime
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Fleischmann scored with 1:40
remaining in overtime to lift the Washington Capitals to a 4-3 victory over
the Carolina Hurricanes at Verizon Center.
In the extra session, Fleischmann hamme
<< Sabres continue winning ways against Stars
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thomas Vanek scored the eventual game-winner
midway through the second period, as the Buffalo Sabres continued their recent
dominance over the Dallas Stars with a 5-3 victory at HSBC Arena.
The Sabres have
<< Bobcats handle Sixers
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gerald Wallace led all scorers with 28
points on 9-of-10 shooting to push the Charlotte Bobcats past the Philadelphia
76ers, 102-87, at the Wachovia Center.
Stephen Jackson added 24 points and 10 reb
Billups, Nuggets send T'Wolves to seventh straight loss >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chauncey Billups delivered 25 points to
lead Denver in a 110-102 final over Minnesota at the Target Center.
Carmelo Anthony recorded 19 points, six rebounds and five assists for the
Nuggets, who wo
Red-hot Thunder dominate Hornets >>
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Durant scored a team-high 29 points
to lead the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder to a decisive 98-83 win over the New
Orleans Hornets at Ford Center.
Russell Westbrook had a near-triple double with
Wade, Heat rout Clippers >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwyane Wade poured in 27 points, dished out eight
assists, and pulled down six rebounds, as the Miami Heat led wire-to-wire in a
108-97 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.
Jermaine O'Neal donated 19 points and
Ginobili helps Spurs hold off Knicks >>
San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manu Ginobili poured in a game-best 28
points to go with six rebounds and five assists, as the San Antonio Spurs used
a late surge to hold off the New York Knicks, 97-87.
Tim Duncan added 18 points an
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Releases World Series Championship Lines
New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox early favorites to win 2008 World Series
The Major League Baseball season starts this weekend and MySportsbook.com, a leading online sportsbook for over 8 years, is the first to offer baseball sports betting lines on who will win the 2007 World Series.
"The World Series is the biggest baseball event in the sports betting world and MySportsbook.com is excited that we are first to market with betting lines on every team," says Tim Dalton, Marketing Director, MySportsbook.com. "We are getting things ready for a great baseball season and our members are looking forward to our Player Payback Bonuses, as well as Dime Lines, all season long."
Going in to this weekend, MySportsbook.com's favorites to win the World Series are the New York Yankees at 7-2 and last year’s winners the Chicago White Sox at 9-2.
"These betting lines are ripe for the picking," Dalton added, "baseball fans know that the season is long and many factors, including players staying healthy, will affect these Future odds as the baseball season progresses. Betting on your favorite team in the beginning of the season could prove quite lucrative. We are seeing examples of this right now in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament with a lucky few that placed pre-season bets on George Mason to win it all. Anything can happen."
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