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09/18/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Brady Quinn era might have to wait a little longer in Cleveland.
After a disappointing opening-week loss to Pittsburgh, the Browns capped a strange week with an unbelievable 51-45 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Following their 34-7 loss to the Steelers, the Browns became the first team since the AFL/NFL merger to trade their season-opening quarterback before Week 2, when they shipped Charlie Frye to Seattle for a sixth-round draft pick.
Derek Anderson was named the starter and Quinn, one of Cleveland's two 2007 first-round picks, was elevated to the backup. With Quinn expected to lead the Browns' offense at some point this season, all Anderson did on Sunday was throw for 328 yards and tie a franchise record with five touchdowns.
"We knew that the capabilities were there," said Browns head coach Romeo Crennel of Anderson on Monday. "So it just came to the front on (Sunday)."
Offseason acquisition Jamal Lewis also played a huge role, compiling 215 yards on the ground, including a 66-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. It was Lewis' best game since he rushed for an NFL single-game record of 295 yards against Cleveland on September 14, 2003 as a member of the Baltimore Ravens.
Besides opening up holes for Lewis, Cleveland's offensive line, one week after giving up six sacks, didn't allow a single Cincinnati defender to get to Anderson.
Despite compiling 554 yards and the most points since Cleveland returned to the league in 1999, the game was still in jeopardy late in the fourth quarter as Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer led his team into Browns' territory. However, with 20 seconds remaining, cornerback Leigh Bodden made a diving interception near Cleveland's sideline and managed to stay inbounds at the 27- yard line, giving Crennel just his second win against an AFC North opponent (2-12).
Surprisingly, this wasn't the highest scoring game between Cleveland and Cincinnati. On November 28, 2004, Rudi Johnson rushed for 202 yards and two touchdowns as the Bengals defeated the Browns, 58-48.
DYNAMIC DUO
Anderson made good use of two of Cleveland's up-and-coming offensive threats: wide receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow.
Edwards, a third-year pro out of Michigan, caught eight passes for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Taken with the third overall pick in the 2005 draft, Edwards is coming off a 2006 season in which he had 61 receptions for 884 yards and six touchdowns.
Winslow, meanwhile, had six catches for 100 yards on Sunday, including a 25- yard touchdown right before halftime that gave Cleveland a 27-21 lead at the break.
Winslow, the sixth overall selection in the 2004 draft, was healthy for the first time last year. The Miami-Florida product, who played in just two games his rookie season after breaking his right leg and missed the entire 2005 season after tearing his ACL in an off-season motorcycle accident, caught 89 passes for 875 yards and three touchdowns in 2006.
DEFENSELESS DEFENSE
Sunday's thrilling victory over Cincinnati hid the fact that Cleveland's defense is still a work in progress.
The Browns have now given up 79 points through the first two games this season, including 896 total yards and 10 touchdown passes. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger established a career-high with four touchdowns, while Palmer set a Bengals' franchise record with six touchdowns.
"We struggled a little bit defensively," said Crennel. "We knew it was going to be a challenge going in. (The Bengals) offense is a high-powered offense. They got receivers, they got a runner, they got a quarterback. We knew it was going to be tough."
Regardless of who is under center for Cleveland, the Browns will struggle this season if they can't defend the pass.
UP NEXT
The Browns will hit the road for the first time next week when they travel to Oakland to square off with the Raiders.
One of Cleveland's four wins last year came against Oakland on October 1. The now-departed Frye threw for three touchdowns in that game as the Browns won 24-21.
Crennel is 2-0 against the Raiders, and the Browns have won six of their last seven games against Oakland.
<< This Week in Auto Racing September 21 - September 23
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's round two of NASCAR's "Chase for the
Nextel Cup" as racing in Dover dominates a light racing weekend.
NASCAR
Nextel Cup
Dodge Dealers 400 - Dover International Speedway - Dover, DE
After Clin
<< Bengals' Offense Explodes, Defense Exposed
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chalk the Bengals' 51-45 loss to the Browns on Sunday up as
a fluke if you wish, Cincinnati fans, but be sure not to pick and choose the
elements you'd like to keep.
If you're discounting the 328-yard, five-touchdown day o
<< Mega Bucs: Win Over Saints Should Change Tampa's Expectations
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After spending seven days devising lists of head coach and
quarterback prospects, fans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had entered a strange
new world by mid-afternoon on Sunday.
The Bucs' thorough 31-14 pasting of reigning NF
<< Ravens must learn how to finish
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This time around, the Ravens were the team begrudgingly
accepting their opponent's generous gifts.
In a 27-20 loss to Cincinnati six days prior, the Ravens committed six
turnovers, though the Bengals couldn't salt the game
Defense bails out defending champion Colts >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even though Peyton Manning played up to his usual standards
on Sunday, it was the Indianapolis Colts' defense that saved the day in a
22-20 win over the AFC South-rival Tennessee Titans at LP Field.
Colts defensive coordin
Wizards' Sealy honored for 2-goal performance >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas City Wizards forward Scott Sealy has
been named Major League Soccer Player of the Week for week 24 following a two-
goal performance in a 3-2 dramatic comeback win against the Columbus Crew
Saturda
Bills take a pounding in Steel City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not even a serious injury to a teammate could will the
Buffalo Bills to a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers this past Sunday at Heinz
Field.
With reserve tight end Kevin Everett laid up in a Buffalo hospital bed after a
se
Harrison cleared to play >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers revealed some
positive news regarding the injury of linebacker James Harrison. Harrison was
diagnosed with a stiff neck and is not expected to miss significant time.
Harrison
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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