A-Rod takes another crack at 600 in finale with Royals

Baseball Betting Lines

07/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The finale of the series between the New York Yankees and the Kansas City Royals could be a historic one, as Alex Rodriguez comes into the matchup one home run shy of becoming the seventh member of the 600 home run club.

Rodriguez has hit memorable homers against the Royals in the past, as the illustrious third baseman clubbed his first-ever homer and his 500th long ball against Kansas City.

A long ball from A-Rod might be needed in today's matchup, as the Yankees' starting pitcher Phil Hughes is scuffling through a major slump. In his last four starts the hard-throwing right-hander has surrendered 19 runs in 23 2/3 innings. Hughes has been pounded for 31 hits during that span, and that includes six home runs.

The last time the young hurler took the hill he was battered by the Angels, allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks. It was just the second home loss on the year for Hughes, who despite winning six of his 10 starts at Yankee Stadium, also possesses a meager 5.22 ERA in front of the home crowd.

Surprisingly the Royals have dominated Hughes in his young career. In three appearances -- two starts -- against KC, he has allowed nine runs on 13 hits and six walks in 8 2/3 innings.

The Royals will turn to newly acquired Sean O'Sullivan this afternoon. O'Sullivan came over in a trade with the Angels that sent Alberto Callaspo to Anaheim. Before being traded O'Sullivan made his first start on the year for the Angels, and ironically that came against Hughes and New York.

The California native received 10 runs in support and handled his business on the mound, holding the Yankees to just two runs in six innings. That was the first-ever meeting for the young hurler against the Bronx Bombers.

On Saturday, Scott Podsednik went 3-for-4, scored once and drove in a run, leading Kansas City to a 7-4 win. Jose Guillen added his 16th homer and drove in two runs, while Rick Ankiel also had two RBI for the Royals, who won for only the third time in 12 games overall.

Kyle Davies (5-6) recorded his first win since May 28th, going eight starts without one, after yielding four runs, seven hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings. Joakim Soria locked down his 27th save.

Mark Teixeira blasted two homers and drove in three for the Yankees, who fell to 5-3 on a nine-game homestand. Jorge Posada also homered in defeat.

Rodriguez, sitting on 599 career homers and facing Davies, off whom he belted his 500th home run, went 1-for-4 with an infield single.

Sergio Mitre (0-2) made his first start since May 16 and gave up seven runs -- five earned -- and seven hits in 4 1/3 frames. He is filling in for Andy Pettitte, who is expected to be out about a month with an injured groin.

Despite the loss the Yankees still own a commanding 16-5 ledger against the Royals at home.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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